POLB to Live Stream Peak Season Forecast

By Mark Edward Nero

The Port of Long Beach will live-stream its 13th annual “Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast” online next week. The forecast features a panel discussion with industry experts who will provide their thoughts and expectations for the upcoming peak season and the effects of new container alliances beginning in April, among other issues.

The event begins at 7 a.m. Wednesday, March 29 at the Long Beach Convention Center Grand Ballroom, Long Beach, California. The panel of experts will include Mario O. Moreno, a senior economist and forecaster with IHS Maritime & Trade; John Zarrella, a sales manager with Preferred Shipper Services; Ken O'Brien, Chief Operating Officer with Gemini Shippers Group; Steve Rothberg, a partner with ocean Carrier and marine terminal operator Mercator International LLC; Anthony Hatch, a principal with ABH Consulting; and Alex Cherin, the intermodal conference executive director with the California Trucking Association.

The panel will be moderated by Mark Hirzel, a district manager with customs brokerage, international freight forwarding, transportation, warehousing and distribution company A.N. Deringer Inc.

The live webcast will be able to be viewed online at www.polb.com/pulseports and www.facebook.com/PortofLB starting at 8 a.m.

Those wishing to attend the event in person can make reservations online at www.polb.com/pulsersvp.

Growth Projected for Long Beach Port in 2014

By Mark Edward Nero

Container imports at the Port of Long Beach are expected to grow by five to seven percent this year, while exports are projected to increase four to six percent compared to last year, according to a forecast provided during Long Beach’s annual peak season forecast breakfast on March 2.

If the prediction holds up, the growth would be a moderate increase from 2013, when import growth was 2.5 percent and export growth was 2.4 percent.

Walter Kemmsies, chief economist for Long Beach-based engineering company Moffatt & Nichol, said the port has everything working in its favor, with the exception of geo-political problems and the weather, which can’t be predicted.

However, he warned that rising interest rates are expected to increase freight movement volatility.

“Higher inventory costs will increase the demand for speed,” he said.

Kemmsies was one of eight speakers during the event, which was held at the Long Beach Convention Center and attracted between 500 and 600 attendees. The other presenters included: Long Beach Board of Harbor Commissioners Vice President Rich Dines’ National Industrial Transportation League President & CEO Bruce Carlton; Federal Maritime Commission Chair Mario Cordero; and John Kaiser, the Vice President and General Manager for Intermodal with Union Pacific.

Carlton said one issue on the horizon causing some angst is the upcoming labor negotiations between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore & Warehouse Union. The current six-year pact between the two is scheduled to expire June 30 and negotiations are expected to begin in May.

“They’re watching, they’re nervous,” Carlton said of NITL members. “Everybody knows there will be some theatre.”

The contract affects about 23,000 dockworkers at ports throughout Washington, Oregon and California.

LA-Long Beach Expecting Steady Cargo Growth

The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles should see steady growth of containerized cargo imports and exports during 2013 as the U.S. economic picture improves, a panel of industry experts predicts.

During the annual “Pulse of the Ports Peak Season Forecast” on March 27 in Long Beach, representatives for the retail, shipping and terminal operating sectors as well as an economist, predicted three to six percent growth in freight volume during the upcoming cargo peak season, from August through October.

The San Pedro Bay ports themselves predict a 3.4 percent nationwide increase in imports in 2013. The outlook compares favorably to recent years when experts were still waiting to see some concrete signs of economic recovery at home and worldwide.

“All the wheels are turning in the right direction,” panelist Walter Kemmsies, the chief economist for the Moffat & Nichol transportation infrastructure engineering firm, said. “We expect the economy to be better this year than last year.”

The positive outlook was tempered, however, by concerns over the looming reduction in staffing by US Customs and Border Protection at seaports due to the federal government’s mandatory “sequestration” budget cuts. Customs has cut worker overtime due to sequestration and could eventually furlough employees. This, Pacific Merchant Shipping Association President John McLaurin said, hurts the San Pedro Bay ports, since they rely heavily on Customs personnel working overtime for inspection services.

The panel also expressed concern over economic impacts of state-by-state environmental regulations and hurdles that hamper the productivity of drayage trucking operations at local ports.

The ninth annual Peak Season Forecast, which was held in downtown Long Beach, drew a capacity audience of nearly 600 people and featured nine panelists from every segment of the industry.

In addition to Kemmsies and McLaurin, the other panelists were Jonathan Gold, the National Retail Federation’s Vice President of Supply Chain & Customs Policy; Erika Montoya, Program Director for the Specialty Crop Trade Council; International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 63 President Michael Podue; Chad Lindsay, Vice President of the Pacific Maritime Association; Knud Stubkjær, CEO and Chief Strategic Officer for SSA Marine; Steve Bobb, Executive Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer for BNSF Railway; and Vic La Rosa, CEO/President of Total Transportation Services Inc.

The archived webcast of the two-and-a-half-hour program is available online at http://www.polb.com/pulseports.

Experts Predict Growth in Goods Movement

There’s a sense of optimism among goods movement industry experts and executives regarding Southern California’s upcoming peak shipping season, but challenges still remain, they say.

During the eighth annual “Pulse of the Ports” peak season forecast conference, which was hosted March 28 by the Port of Long Beach, representatives from across the supply chain examined the trends and expectations in international trade.

The general consensus, the panel of experts told the audience of about 400 at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach, was that international cargo shipping should be busier during this year’s peak season of summer and early fall than it was in 2011.

“Importers are optimistic and they believe sales will increase this year,” Daniel Wall, a senior vice president with logistics firm Expeditors, said. “And they are excited about it.”

Additionally, exports, which have been the backbone of the economic recovery of the West Coast goods movement industry, are expected to continue to rise, according to Walter Kemmsies, chief economist for civil engineering company Moffatt & Nichol.

The optimism was tempered, however, by concern for regulatory challenges facing the trucking industry and the sense that economic recovery in this country is still a work in progress.

Among the factors that can determine the speed of the recovery include economic challenges in European countries and geopolitical instability in oil-rich countries in the Middle East. However, the long-term picture looks good, experts say, partially due to ongoing investment in infrastructure.

Among those infrastructure projects is the Middle Harbor redevelopment, a nine-year, $1.2 billion Port of Long Beach project under which two aging shipping terminals will be combined into a more modern and efficient one.

Shipping line OOCL recently signed a 40-year, $4.6 billion lease to operate the terminal.

“The Middle Harbor redevelopment project will enable us to meet the challenge of the future,” OOCL USA President Erxin Yao told the assemblage.

An archived webcast of the “Pulse of the Ports” forecast is available at www.polb.com/pulseports.