Container imports at the Port of Long Beach are expected to
grow by five to seven percent this year, while exports are projected to
increase four to six percent compared to last year, according to a forecast
provided during Long Beach’s annual peak season forecast breakfast on March
2.
If the prediction holds up, the growth would be a moderate
increase from 2013, when import growth was 2.5 percent and export growth was
2.4 percent.
Walter Kemmsies, chief economist for Long Beach-based
engineering company Moffatt & Nichol, said the port has everything working
in its favor, with the exception of geo-political problems and the weather,
which can’t be predicted.
However, he warned that rising interest rates are expected
to increase freight movement volatility.
“Higher inventory costs will increase the demand for speed,”
he said.
Kemmsies was one of eight speakers during the event, which
was held at the Long Beach Convention Center and attracted between 500 and 600
attendees. The other presenters included: Long Beach Board of Harbor
Commissioners Vice President Rich Dines’ National Industrial Transportation
League President & CEO Bruce Carlton; Federal Maritime Commission Chair
Mario Cordero; and John Kaiser, the Vice President and General Manager for Intermodal
with Union Pacific.
Carlton said one issue on the horizon causing some angst is
the upcoming labor negotiations between the Pacific Maritime Association and
the International Longshore & Warehouse Union. The current six-year pact
between the two is scheduled to expire June 30 and negotiations are expected to
begin in May.
“They’re watching, they’re nervous,” Carlton said of NITL
members. “Everybody knows there will be some theatre.”
The contract affects about 23,000 dockworkers at ports
throughout Washington, Oregon and California.